New Delhi, 09/01/2025: Steel prices in 2025 are expected to be much higher than in 2024 if the government introduces a safeguard duty on steel imports by the end of February, as reported by Crisil. Right now, domestic steel prices are low because global steel prices have dropped, and they are expected to stay soft in 2025. However, if the duty is applied, prices could go up by 4-6%.
According to Vishal Singh from Crisil, new steel plants increasing production will add more supply, which might bring flat steel prices down a little. Still, prices would remain higher than the 2024 average. He added that competition among steel producers for market share could limit how much prices rise. If the safeguard duty is enforced, steel prices will likely go up significantly, especially in the first half of 2025.
In 2024, steel prices in India fell due to increased supply, partly from higher imports, with hot-rolled coil prices dropping 9% and cold-rolled coil prices 7%. Lower coking coal prices (-12%) reduced costs for producers, though iron ore prices rose by 9-10%, and Chinese steel exports remained cheaper than domestic prices.
India’s steel demand is projected to grow by 8-9% in 2025, driven by housing, infrastructure, and industrial needs, while global steel demand declined by 1% in 2024. Demand dropped in China (-3.5%), Europe, Japan, and the US (-2-3%). However, strong growth in India (+11%) and Brazil (+5.6%) helped limit the global decline.
