In a significant shift, India has redirected its motor fuel exports towards Asia in recent months, according to data from commodity data analytics provider Vortexa. Between August and November, Asia’s share in India’s motor fuel exports increased threefold to over 30%, while Europe’s share fell from 20% to 8%.
This change marks a substantial shift in export patterns, influenced by the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted global supply lines for crude oil and petrochemical products. India’s motor fuel exports, which include automotive diesel fuel and aviation turbine fuel, amounted to $6.09 billion in the first half of FY25, an 11.76% decrease compared to the same period in FY24.
Since February 2022, most of India’s motor fuel exports have been directed towards Europe as the continent sought alternatives to Russian energy. However, recent months have seen a decline in export arbitrage to Europe due to a slower pace of orders from European buyers.
Energy efficiency measures and a growing share of renewable energy in the EU’s electricity production have reduced Europe’s reliance on imported motor fuel. The European Union reported a 26.4% decrease in the value of energy product imports and a 10.4% drop in net mass in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year.
Lower exports from refineries in China have also provided Indian refiners with opportunities to increase exports to Asia. However, this window of opportunity may close as motor fuel exports from the US are expected to rise under Donald Trump’s presidency.
Despite China’s and India’s efforts to boost refining capacity and increase exports, the US remains the leading global exporter of motor fuel, accounting for 16% of total global exports. In 2023, US motor fuel exports averaged 900,000 barrels per day, setting new records.
Apart from motor fuel, Europe typically imported significant quantities of diesel and jet fuel from India before the Ukraine conflict, with imports nearly doubling since the invasion, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
