India, the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil, is expected to end 2024 with an oil demand growth rate surpassing that of China. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGCI), this trend is likely to continue, making India one of the fastest-growing major oil consumption centers globally.
Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at SPGCI, forecasted India’s oil demand growth at 3.2% in 2025 compared to China’s 1.7%. From January to October 2024, India’s oil demand grew by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 3.2%, outpacing China’s growth of 148,000 bpd or 0.9%.
India’s oil demand growth is driven by its potential in energy-intensive industries, vehicle sales, a rapidly expanding aviation sector, petrochemical consumption, and a growing population. This contrasts with China’s subdued demand growth due to sectoral slumps, declining population, and increased adoption of alternative fuel vehicles.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that India’s oil demand growth would overtake China’s by 2027, driven by strong economic and demographic growth. India is expected to increase its oil demand by nearly 1.2 million bpd by 2023, accounting for more than a third of the projected global demand growth of 3.2 million bpd by the decade’s end.
